The DOCument Market Blog Posts

Sentiment

Sun, 05 Feb 2012 13:23:47 EST

A couple of sentiment readings published by Sentimentrader.com provide clues to what we could expect from stocks and precious metals over the next 2-3 months. Beginning with the stock market, both smart and dumb money confidence suggest a meaningful correction is on the horizon. Smart money has dropped to less than 40% confident, indicating that...

Gold Rally to Pause

Wed, 01 Feb 2012 12:36:42 EST

A little over a week ago I noted a suspicion in the Member Letter that, although gold was pushing up against its 150DMA... a very strong support and resistance level for the yellow metal... we would see price push firmly through the moving average in a miniature melt-up move. The premise for this view was a subjective read on the market in which it seemed...

Dollar Toast

Wed, 25 Jan 2012 08:17:36 EST

In previous posts, I have discussed the likelihood of the U.S. Dollar Index forming a major peak in early 2012. The validity of this assessment, as well as its long-term affects, will become painfully clear over the next few quarters as the prices of major commodities accelerate higher. In fact, my analysis also suggests...

Commodity Cycle in Bull Mode

Sat, 21 Jan 2012 12:46:11 EST

A colleague of mine from the office sent me a revealing chart produced by U.S. Global Investors showing commodity returns over the last 10 years. A quick review of their chart yields some interesting tidbits, particularly when combined with the commodity cycle analysis discussed in the Member Letter. Consider...

Hunting a Spot to Buy Commodities

Mon, 16 Jan 2012 15:29:30 EST

Over the course of the last week, the U.S. Dollar Index reversed a pair of swing highs, each of which held the potential to mark an important top. The latter reversal managed to push the DX above an important pivot level and has extended the dollar's daily cycle to a point where a bullish cycle becomes...

Gold Mining Shares Set to Soar

Thu, 12 Jan 2012 18:07:41 EST

After tumbling, in a very volatile fashion, roughly 25% from a September peak into a December low, gold mining shares have bounced back strongly into the new year with a 10% surge in only two weeks. By several measures, these shares remain extremely undervalued and could be set for explosive gains in coming months. Beginning with a longer-term view...

Lone Wolf

Tue, 10 Jan 2012 20:23:39 EST

Over the past several weeks, I have frequently discussed within the Member Letter an expectation to see the U.S. Dollar Index set a major cyclical peak this month. In expressing this view, I seem to be a lone voice of dissent. Many analysts whose opinions I highly respect, including Gary Savage over at SMT, a Member of The DOCument who writes a keen analysis of market volume, and even Jim Rogers...

Mini-Trial Membership Offer

Sun, 01 Jan 2012 17:19:17 EST

As 2012 kicks off, the world faces deeper recessions in Europe and Asia, inflationary pressures from ongoing currency wars, geopolitical unrest focused on the Middle East, and a heated battle for the White House. The confluence of these events on markets is likely to produce a tumultuous environment for markets, especially for those without solid tools to help...

Sample Member Letter

Wed, 14 Dec 2011 21:02:58 EST

Commodities are on the cusp of a major cyclical low, and the move out of this low will herald a period of severe inflation for the United States. Coincidentally, gold is also in the final stages of a panic sell into a weekly cycle low, and the subsequent rally should set the stage for a move above the $2000 mark. This sample letter describes the technical signs of these lows, as well as...

The Collapse of MF Global

Wed, 09 Nov 2011 08:53:31 EST

There are few commodity traders, if any, who are not at least indirectly affected by the sudden collapse of MF Global, one of the largest futures commission merchants in the world. Tens of thousands of customer accounts were frozen over a weekend as the firm was forced to declare bankruptcy and stories emerged that customer funds had been...

Gold Finds Its Legs

Wed, 26 Oct 2011 21:44:37 EST

This week's action in gold and the dollar has changed my intermediate-term outlook for both price series. Here is a quick overview of what I expect for those and related markets over coming weeks and...

Sample Member Letter

Fri, 21 Oct 2011 10:40:57 EST

I had more fun than usual writing last night's Member letter, so I thought I'd post this one for public perusal. Based on the number of comments inside the Member Area, it seems the letter was well-received. If anyone has any questions about what a Membership offers, post a note below or feel free to...

The Economist Cover

Mon, 03 Oct 2011 21:14:47 EST

The Economist got it exactly backwards on their most recent cover. We should be very afraid until politicians stop trying to manipulate our economies. Austrian economics, as well as centuries of empirical evidence, suggest that politicians are only keen on quick fixes which tend to exacerbate problems in the long run. The role of government in an economy should be...

Storm Clouds

Thu, 22 Sep 2011 21:48:23 EST

An unforgivable two months have passed since my last public post, but between moving into a house, establishing an investment partnership, traveling, family time and, of course, writing the nightly Member Letter, finding extra time for such work has slipped down the priority pole. I would like to get back to posting on the blog at least...

Hard Money Bear

Fri, 22 Jul 2011 18:13:34 EST

When speaking about the performance of stocks since the turn of the century, analysts frequently refer to the bull market of 2003-07 and the bull market of 2009-11. Certainly, stock prices have rose in nominal terms during those periods, but the fact remains that stocks have been mired in a secular bear market, characterized by...