The DOCument Market Blog Posts

Good Mood

Sun, 05 Sep 2010 11:38:18 EST

Some exceptionally nice weather this Labor Day weekend has put me in a fantastic mood. The springs and autumns here in Atlanta are quite pleasant, but I've always preferred autumn for a couple of reasons. First, one can enjoy the same refreshing climate as spring, except without the bugs and pollen. Second, comfortably cool air always seems...

Free Sample

Thu, 02 Sep 2010 22:57:48 EST

I prepared a slew of notes for a public blog post this evening and ended up incorporating the content into the Member Letter. Since my eyelids are getting heavy, and I don't think I'll last long enough to rehash everything, I decided to simply add tonight's Member Letter to the free sample list. It's been a while since I've opened one up, so i suppose the timing is good. If anyone has any questions, comments, or critiques, feel free to use the comment section on this page. Without further delay...

Last Gasp

Thu, 02 Sep 2010 01:24:42 EST

The stock market launched Wednesday what I expect will be a last-gasp rally before rolling over into a long and protracted decline. Topping processes are complex and are designed to keep traders holding onto hope before trapping them, psychologically-speaking, into riding losing positions to greater and greater loss. So how far will this...

Verge & Folio

Fri, 27 Aug 2010 01:34:59 EST

It's been such an unusually long stretch since my last blog post, one may think that I hopped a plane and headed overseas again. If fact, I've been quite busy with a new project and am sitting up late hammering out this post just so the gap between posts doesn't get larger. The markets have certainly given us some exciting action since that distant August 18 entry, but I believe...

Stocks Keep Crashing

Wed, 18 Aug 2010 00:11:44 EST

Let's revisit a favorite exercise of mine... viewing stocks in terms of real money... because the analysis may be pertinent to our near-term outlook. Over the past decade or so, equities have been mired in a vicious bear market. The extent of this bear may not be so apparent in nominal terms. After all, major indexes eclipsed their 2000 highs before the 2008 liquidation. However, in terms of gold...

Gross Disgusts Me

Tue, 17 Aug 2010 14:53:38 EST

Money managers frequently take advantage of press time to talk their book, but more often than not, these people offer cohesive explanations for their stances. Nevertheless, the audience must still hack through the occasional attempt to beguile, particularly given the ingenuous approach to such interviews. One can therefore understand...

Aurum Pro Tempore

Sun, 15 Aug 2010 14:54:45 EST

Last weekend I noted that if the trend line defining the bounce out of July gave way, stocks would suffer their first significant correction of the rally. Indeed, the initial infraction occurred on Tuesday, and stocks followed thru to the downside with a 3% swoon the next day. More troubling to the equity outlook...

Time Bandit

Sun, 08 Aug 2010 23:37:53 EST

The summer rally in equities seems to now be mired in a topping process. Regular readers know that ever since the February yearly low gave way, I've been proclaiming that any impending rally would fail to better the April high. As this rally progressed out of the July 1 low, I have therefore been watching intently for signs the market would either...

Seeking the Trade Winds

Fri, 06 Aug 2010 12:49:21 EST

One of these days, mining shares... of the precious metals sort... are going to have the wind at their backs and be able to set their sails at the same time. This lucrative combination of circumstances has been elusive since late last year. During the strong bounce by equities out of the February low, gold action remained choppy, thereby keeping...

Rumblings in the Gold Market

Tue, 03 Aug 2010 14:49:06 EST

Hey, strangers. I know the blog has suffered from a dearth of posts in recent weeks, but the response to the Member letter has been fantastic, and I have been scrambling to solidify all the content for subscribers. I promise that once I finish beefing up the Member content... which at the moment involves completing a couple articles for...

Blowout Sale

Tue, 27 Jul 2010 23:36:08 EST

Gold suffered a panic sell today, but for those traders who find themselves with light precious metals exposure, the correct term is not "panic" but rather "opportunity." The decline of gold's price over the last five weeks represents a classic summer doldrums period for precious metals, and these periods usually end with...

Doomed to Fail

Sun, 25 Jul 2010 23:30:36 EST

In my recent, yet sparse, posts to the public blog, I have discussed why the rally out of March 2009 is doomed to fail. I have maintained little hope of being proven wrong, and as time passes and I read more of the follies of politicians, the more I am convinced my dearth of hope is not gratuitous. Take, for example, the recent statement by...

Rally Pause Nigh

Tue, 13 Jul 2010 23:13:24 EST

The more the stock market rallies, the more potent our expectation of leaving behind a V-bottom. Equities have now popped more than 8% in a mere 7 sessions, yet sentiment refuses to budge off bearish extremes. I have a suspicion that the transition from bearishness to bullishness as this rally progresses will be closer to a...

Stocks Find Some Legs

Sun, 11 Jul 2010 13:35:11 EST

As anticipated, stocks found their legs as the 75-week moving average was tested on the S&P 500. With a rapid, 6% pop now under the market, the question turns to whether or not we will see the low tested before the rally plays out. For a couple of reasons, I judge the liklihood of a bottom test in this case to be slim. First...

Bear Rally Imminent

Mon, 05 Jul 2010 23:40:19 EST

For several weeks I've been pounding the table about the likelihood that the bear market has returned, and the evidence continues to pile up. Our first clue came in early May based on a certain behavior of the daily equity cycle. When the decline proceeded to take out the February yearly low, we had confirmation of a failed yearly cycle. With this evidence in hand...